The tally

How did I do? Why thanks for asking! Click on the image below for a comparison — my prediction on the left, the apparent final result on the right.


I didn't see the caucus states of Alaska and Minnesota ending up in the Obama column. He might still get up in New Mexico, in which case I misjudged that too. In the other 20 states I picked the outcome, and occasionally nailed the margin. Massachusetts and Arizona were not as close as I imagined, and I under-estimated Obama's support in the predominantly caucusing Mountain region. That goes some way to explaining how I think Obama won the day in both states and delegates.

What about my other prediction though — that any win for Obama on delegates would be a famous victory? The US media has not yet tallied the delegate counts, and they might come up with marginally different numbers by factoring in the district-level results. But the verdict is already delivered: it's a draw. This is based largely on Clinton's solid numbers in Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, and I don't expect they'll revise it as the delegates are known. So I was wrong on this count. But that's good. The media has been hostile to Hillary's front-runner status, and this is a realignment that better reflects the reality of a race between two well-matched candidates.

Joseph | 6 Feb 2008

Fri 15 Feb 2008, 11:35PM Vincent

The second half of this post by Josh Marshall sums up the way I feel about Clinton's campaign at the moment.

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