make-believe.org

Super Tuesday Calculator

My calculator for predicting the outcome of Tuesday's Democratic primaries is now available: Super Tuesday Calculator.

Play around with it. There's some good poll data available at Pollster.com. Send me your predictions (using the "Share" link) or leave them in the comments. I'll be posting mine here closer to the date.

Joseph | 2 Feb 2008

Sat 2 Feb 2008, 7:34PM Joseph

If you want a headstart, here's the most recent poll for each state where post-New Hampshire data is available. Edwards has been given 4% across the board to account for residual support.

I think there's a few outliers in this collection of polls (including NJ mainly, to a lesser extent MA and IL), so you definitely want to tweak the numbers.

Most recent polls, as of Sat 2pm AEDST

Tue 5 Feb 2008, 11:28AM Rohan

http://make-believe.org/misc/super-tuesday?70x30xx50x50xx40x60xx60x40xx80x2 0xx50x50xx40x60xx50x50xx50x50xx60x40xx50x50xx50x50xx55x45xx50x50xx50 x50xx45x55xx45x55xx30x70xx55x45xx50x50xx60x40xx55x45xx55x45x

Tue 5 Feb 2008, 8:00PM Joseph

Here are my final numbers. If you're going to be making a prediction yourself, looking closely at these might be considered cheating. Or it might be considered taking the bait. You can't say I didn't warn you.

Tue 5 Feb 2008, 8:47PM Jackso

http://make-believe.org/misc/super-tuesday?48x52xx50x50xx52x48xx52 x48xx56x44xx48x52xx49x51xx48x52xx51 x48x1x43x57xx52x48xx51x49xx51x49xx48x52xx48x50x2 x47x53xx50x50xx51x49xx52x48xx48x48x4x51x49xx47x53xx51x49x

Tue 5 Feb 2008, 8:59PM Joseph

Wow JT - a win for HRC in Illinois would be quite something.

Tue 5 Feb 2008, 10:24PM Peter

Here are my predictions. They are shamelessly random.

Wed 6 Feb 2008, 9:58AM Huw

Here are my predictions. Absolutely uninformed, but I'm picking Obama for California. http://make-believe.org/misc/super-tuesday?51x47x2xxxxxxx46x41xx54x21xx46x47xx32x34x17x41x27x9x44x42xx37x52xx31x37xx22x55x15x39x58x3x59x22x11x40x33x12x47x38xx45x43xx59x38x3x51x30x10xxxx50x19x25x34x20x16x44x35x21

Sorry, comments are not available on this post.

stuff & nonsense

  • Topographic viewTopographic view
     shows elements on a webpage according to how deeply nested they are. It's a bookmarklet for web development.
  • The qualifierThe qualifier
     renders controversial statements on this page harmless. Reinstate the slings and barbs by refreshing. Also a bookmarklet.

  • jjmap
    American Diary

    Two weeks with the apple and the lone star (illustrated).

all posts, ordered by month in reverse-chronological order:

In Words

In Other Words